Derren Brown: The Events

[Cnr]

Did anyone watch the Lottery Prediction Event last night.
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If so what did you think of it?

[guardy06]

Yeah watched it, looking forward to fridays show to see how he did it!!

[J1993]

when is it on?

[guardy06]

The program that shows how he did it is on channel 4 at 9pm.

[jaymyer79]

9pm tomorrow night.

Derren Brown is pretty amazing. Love watching his shows. Looking forward to seeing how he did the lottery prediction.

[Skywalker]

Ive copied and pasted this from somewhere else

OK, I've got it. Or at least I think I have.

Using a random lottery number generator, I just did over 200 random draws. The numbers spread (lowest to highest) ranged from 17 to 49. Taking this as a sample, and also considering the fact I've looked at a shitload of lottery results and seen similar results, I have come to the conclusion that you would have to be really unlucky to come across a one-off spread where the numbers all fell within a 16 number spread.

If you take all these perms, and forget them for the time being, you have a drastically reduced number of perms to consider. Brown has simply decided on a spread of numbers which gives him the highest practicable number of perms to cover in terms of takes in a year.

The TV being turned off was the key for me, there is then a little jump, and it would make sense that the pre-recorded clips were filmed witha blank TV rather than attempt somehow to keep the TV looking realistic. The TV being on to start with is the hook to make you think the whole clip is live. In all actuality, the duration of time between the TV going off and the hurried "Goodbye" was 44 seconds. Brown also has bags under his eyes in the one closeup we see of him after the TV goes off, which he does not at the beginning of the whole clip. So, the TV going off was the cue to start the recorded clip.

The pad he writes the numbers on (or doesn't, if you watch closely enough) is another prop meant to distract you from the TV being turned off, it is done in passing with as little emphasis as possible.

I believe that the "hand over the mouth" routine while the draw was being done was in order for Brown to speak into a sleeve mic, probably to a technician who was getting ready to switch from 'live' to recorded video, and needed the numbers as quickly as possible in order to select the right clip and make the switch as seamless as possible.

I'm working on the numbers (or rather, a good friend of mine is) and I bet we'll find out that a spread of either 16 or 18 is reuiqred to reduce the number of perms to something like 1 million. This would mean that Brown was banking on something not happening on this one occasion that had never happened before, ie- the spread of numbers being lower than 16, or 18. And the beauty of the whole scheme was that if the numbers DID by some miracle come out 1,2,3,4,5,6, since he had only ruled out perms of numbers within a spread of 16 or 18 (somewhere round there, I'd guess), he'd still have video clips to select from which would include combinations of 5 of those numbers plus one other (1,2,3,4,5,(39), or (12),21,25,28,31,35, for example)... This way, he'd be odds on to get 6, but even if he didn't he was guaranteed 5. All he needed was for the spread of numbers to be greater than the number he selected, and he'd look a genius. If he missed, well, five would still be a great effort, and that would be the minimum. He also didn't promise to pick them all, but he did make reference to being certain of getting five.

To put it in perspective, with a projected spread of 16, which is about reasonable I would think (and lower than any spread of Lottery numbers I could find), if any number lower than 17 came out, then any other number over 33 coming out would guarantee him getting 6 out of 6. If a number lower than 10 comes out, he only needs one number higher than 25.... He'd be pretty unlucky not to get 6, when you look at it that way.

I may not be exactly right with the system I've chosen to pick the perms which he'd use, but the theory holds true, you can definitely do a number a **** of a lot lower than 13.9 million takes and guarnatee 5, and pretty much guarantee 6, and I'd guess that's what he's done.

If he recorded 1,000,000 perms, at one minute per clip (on average including setting up time, number/ball changes, etc) it would take him pretty **** close to a year, if he did 8 hours per day 5 days a week,if my maths are right. This would tally with the "year of my life" that he mentions.

The camera wobbles all the way through, uncharacteristically for a pro cameraman, because it makes the transition from live to pre-recorded harder to spot.

I became really certain of the switch from one to the other because of the hurried nature of the farewell message. Since the guy had just predicted 6 Lottery numbers and he had already made clear he had a 10 minute slot on C4, it seemed weird that suddenly he couldn't waitto ge toff camera. This made me think of the time it takes to pre-record, and the time per clip shot, and the accumulation of it over a year. Considering Channel 4 gave him all 5 of their channels, they wouldn't cut short his 10 minute slot, so I knew something was up.

Er... I think that's it. I've been trying to work it out for hours now, think I pretty much covered everything. As soon as my good friend gets back to me with some numbers relating to the spread of numbers, then I will post further.

[PMM]

missed it but sort of seeing the clip above intermittedly.... for only about 2sec of vid

I'd say time delay between analog an digital transmissions or induced time delay like my usbtv It records live and you can pause and restart as you feel fit.

[ReLeNtLeSS]

I think i know how it was done.

It was live, as they said.

As son as Derren got into the hand over mouth possition, C4 was paused and a projecter came on to show the lotto, the TV was a prop, never worked in the first place. As soon as lotto finished, Derren's head moved, and the left most ball raised up a bit. Live was back, and the projecter or video feed from BBC1 was turned off. Shimples.

[iGoD ReleNtLeS]

Ive copied and pasted this from somewhere else

OK, I've got it. Or at least I think I have.

Using a random lottery number generator, I just did over 200 random draws. The numbers spread (lowest to highest) ranged from 17 to 49. Taking this as a sample, and also considering the fact I've looked at a shitload of lottery results and seen similar results, I have come to the conclusion that you would have to be really unlucky to come across a one-off spread where the numbers all fell within a 16 number spread.

If you take all these perms, and forget them for the time being, you have a drastically reduced number of perms to consider. Brown has simply decided on a spread of numbers which gives him the highest practicable number of perms to cover in terms of takes in a year.

The TV being turned off was the key for me, there is then a little jump, and it would make sense that the pre-recorded clips were filmed witha blank TV rather than attempt somehow to keep the TV looking realistic. The TV being on to start with is the hook to make you think the whole clip is live. In all actuality, the duration of time between the TV going off and the hurried "Goodbye" was 44 seconds. Brown also has bags under his eyes in the one closeup we see of him after the TV goes off, which he does not at the beginning of the whole clip. So, the TV going off was the cue to start the recorded clip.

The pad he writes the numbers on (or doesn't, if you watch closely enough) is another prop meant to distract you from the TV being turned off, it is done in passing with as little emphasis as possible.

I believe that the "hand over the mouth" routine while the draw was being done was in order for Brown to speak into a sleeve mic, probably to a technician who was getting ready to switch from 'live' to recorded video, and needed the numbers as quickly as possible in order to select the right clip and make the switch as seamless as possible.

I'm working on the numbers (or rather, a good friend of mine is) and I bet we'll find out that a spread of either 16 or 18 is reuiqred to reduce the number of perms to something like 1 million. This would mean that Brown was banking on something not happening on this one occasion that had never happened before, ie- the spread of numbers being lower than 16, or 18. And the beauty of the whole scheme was that if the numbers DID by some miracle come out 1,2,3,4,5,6, since he had only ruled out perms of numbers within a spread of 16 or 18 (somewhere round there, I'd guess), he'd still have video clips to select from which would include combinations of 5 of those numbers plus one other (1,2,3,4,5,(39), or (12),21,25,28,31,35, for example)... This way, he'd be odds on to get 6, but even if he didn't he was guaranteed 5. All he needed was for the spread of numbers to be greater than the number he selected, and he'd look a genius. If he missed, well, five would still be a great effort, and that would be the minimum. He also didn't promise to pick them all, but he did make reference to being certain of getting five.

To put it in perspective, with a projected spread of 16, which is about reasonable I would think (and lower than any spread of Lottery numbers I could find), if any number lower than 17 came out, then any other number over 33 coming out would guarantee him getting 6 out of 6. If a number lower than 10 comes out, he only needs one number higher than 25.... He'd be pretty unlucky not to get 6, when you look at it that way.

I may not be exactly right with the system I've chosen to pick the perms which he'd use, but the theory holds true, you can definitely do a number a **** of a lot lower than 13.9 million takes and guarnatee 5, and pretty much guarantee 6, and I'd guess that's what he's done.

If he recorded 1,000,000 perms, at one minute per clip (on average including setting up time, number/ball changes, etc) it would take him pretty **** close to a year, if he did 8 hours per day 5 days a week,if my maths are right. This would tally with the "year of my life" that he mentions.

The camera wobbles all the way through, uncharacteristically for a pro cameraman, because it makes the transition from live to pre-recorded harder to spot.

I became really certain of the switch from one to the other because of the hurried nature of the farewell message. Since the guy had just predicted 6 Lottery numbers and he had already made clear he had a 10 minute slot on C4, it seemed weird that suddenly he couldn't waitto ge toff camera. This made me think of the time it takes to pre-record, and the time per clip shot, and the accumulation of it over a year. Considering Channel 4 gave him all 5 of their channels, they wouldn't cut short his 10 minute slot, so I knew something was up.

Er... I think that's it. I've been trying to work it out for hours now, think I pretty much covered everything. As soon as my good friend gets back to me with some numbers relating to the spread of numbers, then I will post further.

yes, but EVERYTHING in the lotto is completely random, even if say ball 10 has come up the last 6 draws, how do u know its to come out this time? its just completely random. theres like a 1 in a billion chance of winning the lottery.

[Skywalker]

The math to predict the winning numbers is

6x5x4x3x2x1 = 720

49x48x47x46x45x44 = a mahoooooosive number

Divide 720 by the mahooooooosive number = 13,983,816.

So, its 13,983,816 to 1

[Mungo]

Something interesting...
It was a 10 minute slot, and at the end he did the whole, we're out of time! Goodbye!
Just re-watched on 4od, its 6mins 46 seconds long... thats not 10 minutes :rolleyes:

[system7]

You gotta suspect some shenanigans here. I won't even waste time wondering how a man can predict 6 out of 6 on a random event. :tongue:

If he could really do it, why would he not have taken his winnings and retired to a Greek Island already... :biggrin:

There's a better way to make millions. Buy a bankrupt and asset-stripped company for £10 that has a guaranteed interest free loan of £427M from previous owners BMW. Pocket £42M as executive pay and bonuses. Let the company fail anyway. Yes, It's Rover car company.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/09/how_phoenix_four_extracted_40m.html

Seemples...even BMW laughed all the way to the bank.

[Skywalker]

At the end of the day hes an illisionist so there is a trick in there somewhere

[Iainm]

According to the Sun it was split screen

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/2631919/Secret-of-Derrens-Lottery-plottery.html

[Andy_Mac]

I cant beleive anyone thinks its anything BUT a trick! Derren is always very clever but its all about misdirection. The lottery is not predicable - 1,2,3,4,5,6 has just as much chance as coming out as any other 6 numbers - or have i missed something.

[Stacey Crossley]

awesome show he has been banned from all casinos in the usa!!!

[Cnr]

I doubt he did it with the "Wisdom of the crowds" idea as it just does not seem plausible to me. I think next weeks one looks interesting though.
piBSdrAfiao

[J1993]

I am currently studying Maths and Further maths, and now in further maths we are on the statistics module, and there is no way chance can be changed, rolling a dice is not affected by people wanting it to land a 6.

Most probably split screen, with decent software, and a studio, i could 100% replicate what he had done, and i am sure he must have done this.

In no way is guessing the weight of a cow linked to the lottery numbers, lottery is chance, weight is not chance.

[Helior]

everything is chance!

[thehitmen]

I so want him to hypnotise me to my seat :D

After reading Derren's book, i believe there is truth to how he did the lottery 70% Truth 30% unknown?

[thehitmen]

9PM people!

[jaymyer79]

Just watched it....didn't work for me.

[J1993]

nor me........